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Is China in Trouble?

This report was provided exclusively to the New York Analysis of Policy & Government by Daria Novak, who served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration.

The 2019 Report to Congress of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission is public and the picture is provides indicates not much has improved since last year. While China’s domestic economy has cooled to the slowest pace in 30 years, the country’s unwavering commitment to state management means that its decades-long history of unfair trade practices remains a serious threat to US national security and global competitiveness. Washington has pushed hard for Beijing to codify its commitments to strengthened intellectual property rights protection, prohibition of forced technology transfer, and the removal of industrial subsidies. 

Since receiving permanent Most Favored Nation status almost two decades ago China has refused to abide by its commitment to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The United States, in response, has imposed tariffs impacting more than $500 billion in bilateral goods trade and reduced overall trade with the country. China’s response has been to improve its pursuit of domestic technological advances using whatever means available, including stealing intellectual property and industrial espionage. 

According to the eight key findings in the 2019 report, China’s economy is not moving toward the broader market liberalization advocated by Washington. Beijing remains determined to preserve its dominant role in the economy and its trade-distorting practices. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) views US actions on fair trade compliance as an attack on its internal affairs and has attempted to apply pressure on US companies by imposing its own tariff regime in response.

In an attempt to stimulate its slowing domestic economy Beijing has instituted infrastructure spending, tax cuts, and targeted monetary stimulus. In 2020 and for several years following it, China’s GDP is not expected to meet the minimum growth requirement of 6.2% needed to meet its 10-Year Plan for Economic Development. The GDP may fall as much as .3% lower than the artificial figures published by the government.

Other efforts by Beijing to influence its economy have met with limited success. While its deleveraging campaign has contained corporate debt growth, local governments continue borrowing at high rates. Individual household debt also is expanding rapidly as the Chinese attempt to maintain their standard of living during the slowdown. This not only poses a significant risk to China’s financial system, it also presents government policymakers with a major challenge. The population may not tolerate the economic policies of the CCP leadership without dispute. Beijing will have a difficult time limiting domestic expectations while attempting to expand the economy.

The combination of the economic slowdown and China’s global ambitions has resulted in an expansion in the strength and breadth of the state sector of the economy while private companies are floundering in debt and inventory. In 2019 these companies had a difficult time obtaining credit to expand operations. When China did purpose market liberalization this past year it only was in terms that were favorable to the state. Overall, Beijing faces a difficult time in the coming year.

The report Too little testosterone also can make it harder for your teen to respond to road conditions and to drive in an effective way to avoid crashes. generic levitra cheap It is you, the buyer who should do some important site on line cialis product inspections in order to purchase the medication. Note: This medication is only for men who have an erectile dysfunctional issue.Never try performing any task that needs cialis prices http://appalachianmagazine.com/category/history/page/2/?filter_by=random_posts a prescription from a skilled doctor. This pill acts as the perfect male enhancement get levitra appalachianmagazine.com pills as they are composed of natural ingredients. to Congress calls for a number of measures, including legislation to preclude Chinese companies from issuing securities on U.S. stock exchanges if certain conditions are present. It also asks Congress to direct the Department of Justice to reestablish Congress a higher education advisory board under the Federal Bureau of Investigation in concert with other Departments and USG agencies to review the adequacy of protections for sensitive technologies and research, identify patterns and early warning signs in academic espionage, assess training needs for university faculty and staff to comply with export controls and prevent unauthorized transfer of information, and share other areas of concern in protecting national security interests related to academic research. Included would be an assessment of the number of Chinese STEM students attending schools in the United States, their past affiliations and their possible participation on the illegal transfer of intellectual property to China. 

The safety of Chinese pharmaceuticals also is of concern. Drugs, and the raw materials to make them, are provided to US firms, the US military and other USG-related departments and agencies. They should not be manufactured in China, according to a report recommendation. It urges Congress to require the FDA, within six months, to investigate and certify to Congress whether the Chinese pharmaceutical industry is being regulated for safety at US standards, either by Chinese authorities or the FDA.  

The Report also contains a number of defense recommendations related to China’s global expansionist goals. It urges Congress to direct DOD to make assessments of China’s overseas basing, investment in strategic assets such as ports and airfields, and attempt to dissuade from nation from hosting a Chinese military presence. 

Regarding China’s space ambitions, it urges Congress to direct the National Space Council to develop a strategy to ensure the United States remains the preeminent space power in the face of growing competition from China and Russia. This includes a long-term economic space resource policy strategy, including an assessment of the viability of extraction of space-based precious minerals, onsite exploitation of space-based natural resources, and space-based solar power. 

To counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region is recommends the US assess the viability and impact of establishing new military training centers hosted by Indo-Pacific allies and partners to increase connectivity, interoperability, and shared professional military education among countries throughout the region. And, finally, it urges Congress to ensure the US limit China’s attempts to isolate Taiwan’s democratically-elected leaders and to strengthen support for Taiwan’s engagement with the international community, including actions the Administration will take should Beijing increase its coercion against Taiwan.

Overall, the 2019 Report indicates not much has improved in US-China economic and security affairs since last year and there also are numerous indicators warning that Beijing’s aggressive posturing in the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere will continue unabated if not opposed by other nations.

Photo: Two pilots assigned to a naval aviation brigade under the PLA Eastern Theater Command get settled in the cockpit of a J-10 fighter jet before takeoff for the round-the-clock air-to-air live-fire training in late November, 2019. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Sha Lingyun and Tian Jianmin)

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Defense Budget Addresses Major Challenges

For a number of years following the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States faced comparatively weak opponents.  Washington’s armed forces were far more advanced than any opponent.

That began to change when China, its technology developed through both its own efforts and the intellectual property theft and outright espionage it successfully engaged in, and the vast financial resources it brought to bear, resulted in a vast, first-rate military. Recently, China has fielded its first aircraft carrier, demonstrated its ability to shoot down satellites, continued to field short, medium, and long-range missiles,  successfully tested hypersonic glide vehicles,  and modernized and expanded its nuclear capabilities.

Vladimir Putin dramatically upgraded and modernized Russia’s conventional armed forces, as well as fielding the planet’s most potent nuclear arsenal.  In the second decade of the 21st century, Moscow engaged in a $723 billion modernization program that included procuring 1,700 warplanes, including cutting edge fighters and new air defense batteries. The Voice of Russia reported that Moscow revamped its air force with many new craft. In 2016, Spacewar reported that “A total of eight Borey-class submarines are planned to join the Russian Navy by 2020 to be the backbone of Russia’s marine nuclear forces. The first three have been launched, and another three are currently under construction. By 2020, the Russian Navy also plans to operate a total of eight Borei-class nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarines, which will become the mainstay of the naval component of the country’s strategic nuclear deterrent.” Russia is upgrading other subs with Kalibr cruise missiles…Moscow’s innovative undersea fleet is getting a further upgrade through the development of ‘fifth generation submarines,’ unmanned  nuclear vessels with advanced stealth, noise-reduction, automated reconnaissance and warning systems.”

In the far east, The Associated Press noted,  the Kremlin’s military will deploy state-of-the art Bal and Bastion anti-ship missile systems and new drones will be deployed. The Arctic region is also receiving substantial attention.

The Beijing and Moscow developments are all the more troubling since the two military giants are virtually united in their opposition to the United States. Russia, the planet’s geographically largest nation, and China, with the world’s largest population, have combined their strengths in an alliance clearly aimed at the United States. The two enormous states have engaged in extensive joint military exercises across the globe, have engaged in sales of military equipment, and have covered for each other’s military misdeeds in diplomatic forums.

In their study of this extraordinary alliance, Douglas Schoen and Melik Kaylan in their book “The Russian-China Axis” described the cooperation between the two giant states: “Militarily, the two nations are cooperating and collaborating like never before…Put simply, this coalition has the potential to permanently and fundamentally alter international relations.  It was envisioned as,  and it has functioned as, a counterweight to liberal democracy generally and the United States specifically…The Russia-China alliance—we call it a new Axis—already possesses extraordinary power, as it is clear not just with new economic and trade agreements and military cooperation but also in the areas of nuclear proliferation and cyber warfare.  Individually and together, Russia and China seek to undermine the social, economic, and political framework of democratic societies and our alliances in a way that has yet to be fully understood. Their efforts to do so are emboldened immeasurably by a United States that is losing the confidence and trust of its allies and partners around the world. “

Counter-intuitively, while this was occurring, the United States actually reduced military spending during the Obama Administration. The resulting danger is undeniable, and the Pentagon is forced into a catch-up position.

Deputy Defense Secretary David L. Norquist   worries that “erosion of our competitive edge against China and Russia continues to be DOD’s central problem. To preserve peace, we must prepare for the high-end fight against near-peer competitors. While counterterrorism will continue as a core challenge, future conflicts with other nations will likely be radically different than wars fought since the collapse of the Soviet Union.”

In response, the Pentagon’s proposed 2020 $718 billion budget, according to Norquist, provides funding for several key areas, according to Norquist, including:

  • It significantly increases the investments in space and cyberspace as warfighting domains.
  • It makes investments in the air, land and sea domains to modernize the force and includes the largest shipbuilding request in 20 years.
  • It puts emphasis on innovation, such as artificial intelligence, hypersonics and unmanned vehicles.
  • It invests in developing and experimenting with and prototyping to build out and prepare for future conflicts. The research and development program has a significant funding increase.
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Photo: Chinese Defense Ministry

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Dangerous Chinese Illusions, Part 2

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its two part examination of China’s challenge to the U.S.—and the unrealistic response on the part of some Washington policy makers.

The Free Beacon also reported that “China flight tested a new variant of a long-range missile with 10 warheads in what defense officials say represents a dramatic shift in Beijing’s strategic nuclear posture. The test of a missile with 10 warheads is significant because it indicates the secretive Chinese military is increasing the number of warheads in its arsenal…The new commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, Air Force Gen. John Hyten, stated during a Senate confirmation hearing in September that he is concerned about China’s growing nuclear arsenal…’Although it continues to profess a ‘no first use’ doctrine, China is re-engineering its long-range ballistic missiles to carry multiple nuclear warheads and continues to develop and test hyper-glide vehicle technologies,’ Hyten added…The 10-warhead missile test comes amid heightened tensions with China. State-run media in recent weeks has carried reports calling for China to expand its nuclear forces. A broadcast report showed that new long-range mobile missiles could strike the entire United States…The Chinese Communist Party propaganda newspaper Global Times, known for its anti-U.S. stance, issued stark calls for China to build up its nuclear arsenal for use against the United States. On Jan. 24, the newspaper said China’s strategic forces ‘must be so strong that no country would dare launch a military showdown.

China’s actions are indicative of its confidently belligerent attitude, whether in the construction of illegal artificial islands, occupying Philippine offshore areas, or in aggressive acts towards U.S. forces. Lawfare discusses a recent incident. “On December 16 a Chinese warship snatched a U.S. underwater drone literally from under the eyes of the crew of a U.S. survey ship. The USNS Bowditch is an unarmed naval oceanographic vessel that was recovering two underwater drones in the Philippine exclusive economic zone (EEZ), about 50 miles northwest of Subic Bay…China’s capture of the drone violates three norms embedded in international maritime law and reflected in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and other treaties.

In addition to the extraordinary growth in the strength of China’s armed forces, its alliance with Russia has given it a new-found confidence. The Diplomat  notes that ‘a major feature of China’s and Russia’s defense and geostrategic interests has been rising levels of official support for each other’s security, increasingly pitched as common defense concerns… China and Russia have been accelerating their joint military drills including holding their first joint naval drills conducted in the South China Sea this year.”

Avail the facility to order kamagra sildenafil jelly online and relax while they bring your order to shop at pharmacy store wholesale generic cialis your doorstep. generic viagra without visa It will also provide negative effects if used regularly taken for a long term. Treating the underlying cause of impotence condition is a good alternative of buy viagra from canada. There are two advantages of buying generic versions of buying viagra from india over brand name cialis. According to The Navy Times, the Obama Administration had “barred Pentagon leaders from a key talking point when it comes to publicly describing the military challenges posed by China. In February [2016], Defense Secretary Ash Carter cited the ‘return to great power of competition’ in the Asia-Pacific, ‘where China is rising.’ Similarly, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson characterized China and Russia as rivals in this ‘great power competition’ in his maritime strategy. But a recent directive from the National Security Council ordered Pentagon leaders to strike out that phrase and find something less inflammatory, according to four officials familiar with the classified document, revealed here for the first time by Navy Times. Obama administration officials and some experts say ‘great power competition’ inaccurately frames the U.S. and China as on a collision course, but other experts warn that China’s ship building, man-made islands and expansive claims in the South and East China seas are hostile to U.S. interests. This needlessly muddies leaders’ efforts to explain the tough measures needed to contain China’s rise, these critics say.

Part of the “Let’s Pretend” foreign policy concept is that China may be helpful in controlling North Korea.  Unfortunately, that contradicts the evidence.

A Foreign Policy article notes that a “confidential U.N. Report details North Korea’s front companies in China. …an unpublished U.N. report obtained by Foreign Policy …documents sophisticated North Korean efforts to evade sanctions … China has proved a fickle partner at best in Washington’s effort to stymie Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions…China, despite its apparent cooperation of late with international efforts to sanction North Korea, has instead served as Pyongyang’s economic lifeline, purchasing the vast majority of its coal, gold, and iron ore and serving as the primary hub for illicit trade that undermines a raft of U.N. sanctions that China nominally supports, the report’s findings suggest. As early as December 2016, China had blown past a U.N.-imposed ceiling of 1 million metric tons on coal imports, purchasing twice that amount. China then shrugged off a requirement to report its North Korean coal imports to the U.N. Security Council sanctions committee. When U.S. and Japanese diplomats pressed their Chinese counterpart for an explanation in a closed-door meeting this month, the Chinese diplomat said nothing, according to a U.N.-based official. North Korean banks and firms, meanwhile, have maintained access to international financial markets through a vast network of Chinese-based front companies, enabling Pyongyang to evade sanctions.”

America’s policy makers must fully accept that China is a militarily equal power with an expansionist policy that views American strength, and America’s allies, as roadblocks. It would be irresponsible for Washington to continue the Obama policy of ignoring this threat and not strengthening and preparing the U.S. military for the dire challenge that lays ahead.

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Dangerous Chinese Illusions

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government begins a two part examination of China’s challenge to the U.S.—and the unrealistic response on the part of some Washington policy makers.

America’s political establishment—Democrats and Republicans, liberals and Conservatives—desperately want to believe that China harbors no malign intentions.

It’s easy to understand that hope.  The consequences of facing the worlds’ largest population and second largest economy, a nation aligned directly with Russia, the planet’s greatest nuclear force and occupying the world’s largest national land mass—are truly horrifying.

That doesn’t make the reality any less substantial. There is almost no evidence that Beijing,
has any intention of acting in a manner that indicates anything other than belligerent intent. China is, indeed, acting “like a bully.” The evidence is abundant. Beijing’s military budget continues to soar. Its espionage effort is increasingly extensive. It has done nothing to rein in its North Korean client states’ nuclear brinksmanship. It continues its illegal expansionist activities, both in the development of artificial islands and its dominance of the offshore exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. Its military influence in Latin America and Africa grows.

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Scout.com notes that “the Chinese are reportedly working on a handful of high-tech next-generation ships, weapons and naval systems. China has plans to grow its navy to 351 ships [the U.S. Navy only has approximately 276]  by 2020 as the Chinese continue to develop their military’s ability to strike global targets, according to a recent Congressional report.

A Foreign Policy  article notes that a “confidential U.N. Report details North Korea’s front companies in China. …an unpublished U.N. report obtained by Foreign Policy …documents sophisticated North Korean efforts to evade sanctions … China has proved a fickle partner at best in Washington’s effort to stymie Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions…China, despite its apparent cooperation of late with international efforts to sanction North Korea, has instead served as Pyongyang’s economic lifeline, purchasing the vast majority of its coal, gold, and iron ore and serving as the primary hub for illicit trade that undermines a raft of U.N. sanctions that China nominally supports, the report’s findings suggest. As early as December 2016, China had blown past a U.N.-imposed ceiling of 1 million metric tons on coal imports, purchasing twice that amount. China then shrugged off a requirement to report its North Korean coal imports to the U.N. Security Council sanctions committee. When U.S. and Japanese diplomats pressed their Chinese counterpart for an explanation in a closed-door meeting this month, the Chinese diplomat said nothing, according to a U.N.-based official. North Korean banks and firms, meanwhile, have maintained access to international financial markets through a vast network of Chinese-based front companies, enabling Pyongyang to evade sanctions.”

A Washington Free Beacon analysis notes that  “Recent press reports that have received little attention in the West indicate that China is quintupling the size of its marine corps, from roughly 20,000 to 100,000 troops. We really should be paying more attention…You only need a large marine corps if you intend to assert yourself overseas. A perceptive piece last year in The National Interest surveyed this development… The article asked readers to consider “the potential ramifications of such a Chinese amphibious force maintaining a constant presence in, say, Southeast Asia,’or indeed that it “may routinely operate in the Indian Ocean as well—and, for that matter, even in the Mediterranean.’With such an increase in size that we now expect, such expectations are entirely reasonable. Considered along with Beijing’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative and its newly aggressive basing strategy, with naval facilities operating and/or under construction in Pakistan and Djibouti, it also seems that merely regional goals are not the extent of China’s ambitions…Far from a peaceful rise as a nation comfortable with existing international norms and reasonably concerned with its own security, China gives every indication of a desire to call the shots globally. If it achieves such a position, the world will come to miss American predominance—and so will Americans.

The Report concludes tomorrow.

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We gave peace a chance–and it didn’t work

We gave peace a chance—and it didn’t work.

Since 1990, the United States has sharply reduced its military strength. With the exception of the men and material used in the Gulf Wars, the American Armed Forces have sustained continued dramatic cuts that will, by the end of this year, leave the U.S. Army smaller than North Korea’s. The United States hasn’t been alone in this.  Our NATO allies have also slashed spending on their already weak forces.

By 2020, China’s navy will outpace America’s in key areas. Already, Russia has gained the advantage in strategic nuclear arms and continues its ten to one advantage in tactical nukes. North Korea has become an atomic threat, and, all agreements to the contrary, Iran may as well (the Weekly Standard  reports that Iran Made Illegal Purchases of Nuclear Weapons Technology Last Month. Russia has been known to provide nuclear know-how to Iran.)

In the theory espoused by those who believe in the cliché of giving peace a chance, this was a grand experiment. Clearly, it has failed, producing a world closer to a major war than at any time since the end of World War 2. It is not just the development of quantitatively and, in some cases, qualitatively superior forces by nations hostile to the west that is the worrisome outcome of the diminishment of the Free World’s forces; it is in how those forces have been used.

Russia has twice invaded neighboring nations, and engages in intimidating actions towards its European neighbors and the North American coastline.

China has illegally occupied a resource-rich maritime area belonging to the Philippines. It is now claiming domination over vital sea lanes in contradiction of all international law.  Buoyed by President Obama’s eagerness to withdraw U.S. troops from abroad, ISIS has become a major regional power, and the Taliban is preparing for a major return in Afghanistan.

Even if one were to accept the concept, as the current White House clearly does, that America has been over-involved in foreign conflicts and that some aggressive actions by Moscow, Beijing, or others can be ignored, the reality is that the structure of the militaries recently developed by China and Russia appear to have as their target the United States. Moscow and Beijing have developed a deep and multi-faceted alliance. They no longer have any reason to be concerned about each other. No other great power exists, other than the United States, that justifies the high-tech and nuclear-enabled forces each has developed.
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The danger is getting greater. Both Russia and China are continuing their substantial buildup, even as the U.S. continues to reduce its armed strength. The American nuclear arsenal continues to rust away, while Moscow and Beijing continuously upgrade and add to their atomic arsenals. America also appears to be losing in another crucial area as well, as military, civilian, and corporate secrets continue to be rather easily accessed by enemy forces. The most recent attack, called by some critics a “Cyber Pearl Harbor,” gave China extremely sensitive data on Americans with security clearances.

That phrase, “enemy forces,” will surely raise objections from the “give peace a chance” advocates. But it is long past the time when reality, however unpleasant, must be honestly faced and acknowledged. Just as the White House shrinks from using the phrase “Islamic Terrorism,” so too it engages in semantic gymnastics to avoid frank assessments of the growing threat from Russia and China.

That threat is literally knocking on the U.S. doorstep. Russia has re-established cold war ties with Latin America. China has established key military-to-military alliances in the region. Both ISIS and al Qaeda have relationships with drug cartels in the area, as well.

It strains credulity to believe that the White House does not see these threats. But it may have made a cold, extremely risky, and deeply selfish calculation. Gambling that Moscow and Beijing (not to mention Tehran and Pyongyang) will at least temporarily hold off on direct attacks on a newly docile America, the Obama Administration is diverting all the funds it can hijack from the Pentagon and direct them towards its prime and overwhelming motivation: the massive increase in spending on welfare-type programs, a move which could strengthen the loyalty of the left’s political base of the left for decades to come.

The gamble is not working, and the world is spinning surely towards a major conflict on a scale not seen since 1945. This time, however, facing adversaries that have numerical and in some areas technological superiority, the outcome, unless America quickly reverses course, will not be as favorable.