Deeply worrisome figures released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm reveal that America’s Real Gross Domestic Product –the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes — decreased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2015. Current-dollar GDP — the market value of the production of goods and services in the United States — decreased 0.9 percent, or $38.7 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $17,665.0 billion.
A review of the nature of the downturn is even more troubling. Two core economic functions vital to the long term health of the American economy, including exports (Exports of goods and services decreased 7.6 percent in the first quarter, while real imports of goods and services increased 5.6 percent.) and nonresidential fixed investments (which decreased by 2.8%) played a key role. Another less basic function included a decrease in state and local government spending, which was offset by an increase in federal spending.
The reasons for America’s ongoing economic slide are not difficult to discern. It is clear that the recession of 2007 has little or nothing to do with the current crisis. In a pattern familiar to nations where the central government continues to play a greater role through increased taxes and regulations, the uncertainty and handicaps placed on entrepreneurship continue to drag down investment and business activity. The President who tells those who start and grow businesses, especially small businesses, that “You didn’t build that” cannot expect that would-be creators of jobs and revenue would be anything but discouraged from proceeding.
U.S. businesses are increasingly handicapped by federal regulations, Obamacare costs, and the threat of an enormous increase in energy prices due to the threats to the future of coal. At the same time, they are competing not just in the global economy but even within the American domestic market with nations that offer lower and less inclusive corporate tax rates, and have a far less stringent regulatory regime. Continuous requests for a more level playing field, in which goods sold by other nations in the U.S. market should be manufactured under the same standards—have been ignored by official Washington, which pursues precisely the opposite course by supporting international trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which will intensify the problem.
U.S. manufacturing, a key area of the economy both for domestic consumption and exports, continues to face difficult times due to prior legislation signed by President Clinton in 2000, who essentially guaranteed most favored nation status to China. American industrial employment and manufacturing enterprises have never recovered from that act, or from Clinton’s earlier allowance of the sale of supercomputers to Beijing.
Text of the BEA Release
Real gross domestic product — the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes — decreased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2015, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, real GDP increased 0.2 percent. With the second estimate for the first quarter, imports increased more and private inventory investment increased less than previously estimated…
The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Real GDP decreased 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2015, in contrast to an increase of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014. The downturn in the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected a deceleration in PCE and downturns in exports, in nonresidential fixed investment, and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a deceleration in imports and upturns in federal government spending and in private inventory investment.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, decreased 1.6 percent in the first quarter, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate; this index decreased 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.2 percent, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in the fourth. Durable goods increased 1.1 percent, compared with an increase of 6.2 percent. Nondurable goods increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 4.1 percent. Services increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 2.8 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 4.7 percent in the fourth. Investment in nonresidential structures decreased 20.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 5.9 percent. Investment in equipment increased 2.7 percent, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent. Investment in intellectual property products increased 3.6 percent, compared with an increase of 10.3 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 5.0 percent, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent.
Real exports of goods and services decreased 7.6 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 4.5 percent in the fourth. Real imports of goods and services increased 5.6 percent, compared with an increase of 10.4 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.1 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 7.3 percent in the fourth. National defense decreased 1.0 percent, compared with a decrease of 12.2 percent. Nondefense increased 2.0 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 1.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.6 percent.
The change in real private inventories added 0.33 percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.10 percentage point from the fourth-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $95.0 billion in the first quarter, following increases of $80.0 billion in the fourth quarter and $82.2 billion in the third.
Real final sales of domestic product — GDP less change in private inventories — decreased 1.1 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 2.3 percent in the fourth.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases — purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced — increased 1.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the fourth.
Gross national product
Real gross national product — the goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by U.S. residents — decreased 1.4 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.4 percent in the fourth. GNP includes, and GDP excludes, net receipts of income from the rest of the
world, which decreased $24.9 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $30.7 billion in the fourth; in the first quarter, receipts decreased $22.4 billion, and payments increased $2.5 billion.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP — the market value of the production of goods and services in the United States — decreased 0.9 percent, or $38.7 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $17,665.0 billion. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 2.4 percent, or $103.9 billion.
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Real gross domestic income (GDI), which measures the value of the production of goods and services in the United States as the costs incurred and the incomes earned in production, increased 1.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 3.7 percent (revised) in the fourth. For a given quarter, the estimates of GDP and GDI may differ for a variety of reasons, including the incorporation of largely independent source data. However, over longer time spans, the estimates of GDP and GDI tend to follow similar patterns of change.
Revisions
The second estimate of the first-quarter percent change in real GDP is 0.9 percentage point, or $40.7 billion, less than the advance estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting an upward revision to imports and downward revisions to private inventory investment and to personal consumption expenditures that were partly offset by an upward revision to residential fixed investment.
Advance Estimate Second Estimate
(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP…………………………. 0.2 -0.7
Current-dollar GDP………………… 0.1 -0.9
Real GDI…………………………. — 1.4
Gross domestic purchases priceindex…. -1.5 -1.6
Corporate Profits
Profits from current production
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj)) decreased $125.5 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $30.4 billion in the fourth.
Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $2.6 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $12.5 billion in the fourth. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $100.4 billion, in contrast to an increase of $18.1 billion. The rest-of-the-world component of profits decreased $22.4 billion, compared with a decrease of $36.1 billion. This measure is calculated as the difference between receipts from the rest of the world and payments to the rest of the world. In the first quarter, receipts decreased $28.9 billion, and payments decreased $6.5 billion.
Taxes on corporate income increased $9.3 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $4.8 billion in the fourth. Profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj decreased $134.6 billion, compared with a decrease of $25.8 billion. The first-quarter changes in taxes on corporate income mainly reflect the expiration of bonus depreciation provisions…Dividends increased $5.1 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $18.6 billion in the fourth. Undistributed profits decreased $139.7 billion, compared with a decrease of $44.3 billion. Net cash flow with IVA — the internal funds available to corporations for investment – decreased $132.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $12.2 billion.
The IVA and CCAdj are adjustments that convert inventory withdrawals and depreciation of fixed assets reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost economic measures used in the national income and product accounts. The IVA increased $29.4 billion, compared with an increase of $27.5 billion. The CCAdj decreased $220.4 billion, in contrast to an increase of $3.9 billion. Thefirst-quarter changes in CCAdj mainly reflect the expiration of bonus depreciation provisions…
Impacts of Bonus Depreciation on the First Quarter of 2015
The first-quarter changes in taxes on corporate income and in capital consumption adjustment(CCAdj) mainly reflect the expiration of both the 50-percent bonus depreciation provision and increased Section 179 expensing limits claimed under extensions of the 2010 tax acts. For detailed data, see the table “Net Effects of the Tax Acts of 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2010 (and extensions) on Selected Measures of Corporate Profits“.
BEA’s estimates of profits from current production are not affected by these tax acts because profits from current production do not depend on the depreciation-accounting practices used for federal income tax purposes. BEA’s measure of current-production profits reflects economic accounting practices in which depreciation is based on an estimate of the reduction in the value of fixed capital used in the production process. For a more detailed discussion on the effect of tax act provisions on the CCAdj, see FAQ 1002, “How do the economic stimulus acts impact NIPA Corporate Profits?”
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Gross value added of nonfinancial domestic corporate business
Real gross value added of nonfinancial corporations increased 0.6 percent in the first quarter.Profits per unit of real value added decreased, reflecting increases in unit labor and nonlabor costs and a decrease in unit prices.
BEA’s national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA’s Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.