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Afghan pullout may repeat mistake in Iraq

The Constitution gives Congress a considerable role, through funding and treaty approval, in military and foreign affairs. It has also has been an area in which the citizenry and the press have, through vigorous comments, demonstrations and electoral decisions, played a substantial part.

Uniquely, however, throughout the course of the Obama presidency, the influence of Congress and the public has been comparatively less considerable. Part of this has been due to the exceptional support this White House has received from the media, limiting the public’s exposure to the controversial nature and unwanted results of his decisions. Additionally, Mr. Obama’s tactic of labelling new treaties as “agreements” or other terms has been successfully employed to reduce the Senate’s role.

Throughout his tenure in office, Mr. Obama has combined reduced military spending with lesser cooperation with traditional allies and greater concessions to adversaries. He has given greater priority to United Nations decision making, as well as concerns about potential global warming over more immediate issues such as national security.

There have been dramatically undesirable results from the President’s policies, including the failed “reset” with Russia, China’s continuing extensive cyberespionage, unfair trade tactics, and outright armed aggression, and, of course, the series of mistakes which strengthened international terrorism to an unprecedented degree. It appears that a repeat of his mistake in Iraq may lead to the return of the Taliban and a new role for other terrorist forces in Afghanistan.

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It has been approximately a year since the U.S. and its NATO allies have changed their mission from direct confrontation with Afghanistan Islamic extremist to a supporting role for the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF.)  The President had previously announced a departure date for U.S. forces from Afghanistan, but later amended his plans, in light of the disastrous results of the Iraqi pullout, to allow some continuation of a limited role.

According to a Defense Department Report  “Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan,” “U.S. forces in Afghanistan continue to conduct two narrow, well-defined, and complementary missions: training, advising, and assisting the ANDSF and supporting counterterrorism operations against the remnants of al Qaeda and its associates. In order to preserve hard-fought gains and help the ANDSF continue to develop and to provide stability and security in Afghanistan, on October 15, 2015, President Obama announced that U.S. forces will maintain their current posture of 9,800 military personnel through most of 2016. By the end of 2016, rather than draw down to a Kabul-only U.S. military presence as previously envisioned, the United States will maintain 5,500 military personnel in Kabul and Bagram, in addition to a limited presence in the east and south of Afghanistan. This decision provides U.S. forces the access and the reach required to implement these two missions effectively in the next year and reflects the U.S. government’s enduring commitment to Afghanistan and its security forces. It also recognizes that the ANDSF will require more time and assistance to develop into a capable, credible, and independent force that can protect the Afghan people and contribute to regional and international security. The continued U.S. presence will also address threats to the homeland from terrorist actors in the region, particularly al Qaeda.

The results from America’s reduced role and the announced pullout date have been poor. According to the Report, “In the second half of 2015, the overall security situation in Afghanistan deteriorated with an increase in effective insurgent attacks and higher ANDSF and Taliban casualties…The Taliban have remained active in their traditional strongholds, namely in Helmand in the south and Logar and Wardak in the east, and also created a sense of instability for brief periods of time in other parts of the country, such as in Kunduz in northern Afghanistan… insurgents are improving in their ability to find and exploit ANDSF vulnerabilities, making the security situation still fragile in key areas and at risk of deterioration in other places.” While the Report notes improvement and some successes for Afghan forces, it is clear that the 2016 pullout is an enormous risk.